US farm exports to India rise sharply despite absence of trade deal

Uncertainty continues over whether India has agreed to grant wider market access to key American agricultural products such as corn, ethanol and soyabean, or to ease restrictions on imports of genetically modified produce and certain dairy items. Despite this lack of clarity, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has asserted that the India-US trade deal announced on Monday will significantly expand exports of American farm products into India’s vast consumer market.

US claims deal will slash farm trade deficit with India

Rollins has further claimed that the agreement would substantially reduce the United States’ agricultural trade deficit with India, which she put at $1.3 billion in 2024. Her remarks come alongside strong statements from US President Donald Trump, who said India would move towards eliminating both tariff and non-tariff barriers on American imports, while also committing to purchase over $500 billion worth of US energy, technology, agricultural, coal and other products in the coming years.

However, official details so far do not confirm whether India has agreed to relax restrictions on imports of genetically modified crops or dairy products derived from cattle fed on animal-based ingredients. Nor is it clear whether India has opened its market further to US corn, soyabean or ethanol. Yet available trade data shows that American farm exports to India have already surged to record levels, even without a formally signed trade deal.

Also Read : Meta Faces CJI Warning Over WhatsApp Policy in India

Between January and November 2025, the United States exported agricultural products worth $2.85 billion to India, marking a sharp 34.1% increase from $2.13 billion during the same period the previous year. Projections indicate that total US farm exports to India in 2025 will exceed $3.1 billion, the highest level ever recorded. Meanwhile, US imports of Indian agricultural goods grew by only 5.1%, rising from $5.62 billion to $5.91 billion during the same period, resulting in a narrowing of America’s farm trade deficit with India from $3.5 billion to $3.1 billion.

Tree nuts, cotton and soyabean oil power US export growth

Tree nuts—particularly almonds and pistachios—have driven much of the growth in US exports, with shipments valued at over $1.3 billion during January-November 2025. Cotton and crude soyabean oil also contributed significantly. The US benefited from India allowing duty-free cotton imports between August and December 2025, though the duty was restored to 11% at the start of the new year. Similarly, soyabean oil exports surged after India cut its effective import duty from 27.5% to 16.5% in May 2025.

Ethanol has emerged as another key issue in trade talks. The US, the world’s largest ethanol producer and exporter, has been pushing India to allow ethanol imports for fuel blending. India currently permits ethanol imports only for non-fuel industrial uses, such as chemicals, beverages and medicines. New Delhi has resisted US pressure, arguing that opening fuel-grade ethanol imports would undermine its domestic biofuel programme, which relies on ethanol produced from locally grown sugarcane, maize and rice. Meanwhile, India’s agricultural exports to the US have shown signs of weakening in the latter half of 2025, particularly after higher US duties came into force, affecting most export categories except a few processed food segments.

Also Read : India–US Trade Pact Could Unlock $100 Billion Boost for India’s Electronics Exports